Reconsider Growth
A Deeper Look at Kingston’s Growth Projections
The first draft of the City of Kingston’s Official Plan, which proposes a large-scale urban boundary expansion, is based on outdated and unreliable population projections. A recent report, “A Review of the 2023 Council Approved Population Projections,” from former city councilor and former municipal planner, reveals that the city’s growth forecasts are at risk due to significant economic, political, and demographic shifts.
View the Full Report Here (PDF opens in a new window): A Review of the 2023 Council Approved Population Projections
Why the Plan is Unreliable
The city’s plan relies on a 2023 report that projected Kingston’s population would reach 197,000 by 2051. This projection was based on the anticipated opening of the Umicore EV battery plant and sustained high levels of federal immigration.
However, these key assumptions are no longer valid:
– The Umicore plant has been put on an indefinite hold, removing a primary driver of job growth.
– The federal government has announced significant cuts to its immigration and international student targets.
– The city’s unemployment rate continues to climb.
The Unnecessary Urban Boundary Expansion
The city proposes a 745-hectare urban boundary expansion to accommodate this flawed population projection. This expansion is not needed, as the City’s existing housing supply is sufficient to meet the demand of a more realistic growth forecast.
Continuing with this plan would have serious consequences:
– It would impose unnecessary and significant costs on taxpayers.
– It would promote urban sprawl, conflicting with the city’s climate change commitments.
– It would require the removal of land from Natural Heritage Mapping to facilitate development
What We Should Do
The document recommends a more prudent approach, urging the city to:
– Use the 2019 growth study, which projected a population of 146,300 by 2051, as the basis for the Official Plan.
– Defer any proposed extensions to the urban boundary.
– Restore the associated ‘cut-outs‘ from the Natural Heritage Mapping.
This would allow the city to avoid costly development and protect our natural spaces, like Butternut Creek, by basing its future on a more accurate assessment of its growth prospects.